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Sat Jul 4

• Pentagon optimistic on missile defense system - Los Angeles Times: 'Still, many experts and critics of the missile defense system think the confidence is misplaced. "It is completely unwarranted, and it is a wild speculation based on assumptions that are almost certainly untrue," said Theodore Postol, an MIT professor who has studied the system. Despite Pentagon claims of technological advances, for example, Postol argued that the U.S. interceptors would have a difficult time telling a missile warhead from "counterm easures" -- decoys or other debris put in place to fool the interceptors. Critics also consider the North Korean threat overstated, especially given the long-standing inaccuracy of Pyongyang' ;s missiles and the fact that they are not equipped during test launches with any kind of warhead, nuclear or nonnuclear. "What we are talking about is shooting at a missile that is not a threat with a missile that can't intercept it."' ;
• The Emerging Ballistic Missile Threat: Global And Regional Ramifications (RAND) (Bruce Bennett) (1999): For North Korea, . . . ballistic missiles are one of the few options for attacking ROK air forces at their air bases . . . . Ballistic missiles could also be used to attack other targets, including ports and cities. . . . Today [1999], North Korean . . . ballistic missiles . . . ballistic missiles cause damage over only a relatively modest area with unitary HE warheads; a large submunition warhead or the 22 rockets of a 240mm MRL (each with a 50 kg warhead) do somewhat better. . . . The HE warheads would primarily cause disruption at an airfield except for an occasional ?lucky hit.? . . . North Korean ballistic missiles would generally not be well used with HE or HE submunition warheads because their coverage is so low. The best results for North Korean ballistic missiles would be achieved by using CW warheads, which on average could cover ROK airfields (or target types with similar numbers) several times.
• North Korean Launches Affirm Need for Missile Defense (Heritage) (Klingner) (July 4 2009): . . . The Obama Administration should . . . reverse its proposed cuts to missile defense programs. In addition, the Obama Administration should use North Korea?s latest provocation to press China and Russia for agreement to a follow-on UN accord that eliminates the loopholes of UN Resolution 1874. That resolution included stronger language than its predecessors but Beijing and Moscow gutted proposed provisions that would have enabled nations to actually implement it. The feckless pursuit of the North Korean trawler Kang Nam . . . shows the wisdom of including in the resolution reference to Chapter 7, Article 42 of the UN Charter regarding the use military means to enforce the will of the Security Council. . . . Because China and Russia will remain resistant to effective UN resolutions, Washington should implement a comprehensive program to independently impose U.S. sanctions on any company, bank, or government agency complicit in North Korean proliferation . . .
• DPRK: Lauch on One Month (ArmsConrtolWo nk) (July 4 2009): Taking a look at the timeline . . . indicates it takes about two months to move the rocket to the launch site, assemble it horizontally in an assembly building, erect it on the launch pad, fuel it and wait for good weather to launch. That includes about three weeks warning time North Korea gave by filing a launch notification with international organizations. If we (naively) assume the same amount of time, then they should launch in early August. That assumes the June 1st initial indication of launch preparations (shipping large cylindrical objects by train) that I found was the first one published. It also assumes that intelligence agencies and media organizations are just as efficient as publishing the information as they were the last time. Furthermore, it assumes that North Korea does not need to make any long term preparations that might have been performed for the last launch before the preparations were spotted by the West. . . .

Fri Jul 3

• North Korea defies U.S. with new missile launches
• Chronology of U.S.-North Korean Nuclear and Missile Diplomacy | Arms Control Association
• S. Korea: N. Korea may test long-range missile aimed toward U.S.: South Korea said Friday it is closely monitoring North Korean military sites because the communist nation may fire more missiles, .
• 15 dead in suspected U.S. missile strike in Pakistan | AUTOSTRADA80: 15 dead in suspected U.S. missile strike in Pakistan

Thu Jul 2

• North Korea test-fires three missiles - World - FT.com
• Test Fire Missile: Test Fire Missle

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